The Peace Index ? July 2013
(N=602), 502 from the Jewish sector and 100 from the Arab sector
28?30.7.2013
http://www.peaceindex.org/files/The%20Peace%20Index%20Data%20%20July%202013(2).pdf
1. What is your position on holding peace negotiations between Israel and
the
Palestinian Authority?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Strongly in favor 35.8 (29.5) [71.6]
2. Somewhat in favor 29.9 (31.8) [19.3]
3. Somewhat opposed 9.2 (10.4) [2.6]
4. Strongly opposed 19.9 (22.7) [3.6]
5. Don?t know / No answer 5.2 (5.6) [2.9]
2. Do you believe or not believe that negotiations between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority will lead to peace between Israel and the Palestinians
in the coming years?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Strongly believe 6.6 (4.5) [18.4]
2. Somewhat believe 23.7 (21.2) [38.3]
3. Somewhat don?t believe 23.0 (22.9) [23.7]
4. Don?t believe at all 42.6 (47.5) [14.9]
5. Don?t know / No answer 4.0 (3.9) [4.7]
3. If a peace agreement is reached with the Palestinians that includes an
Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and an evacuation of settlements,
in your opinion, would there or would there not be a need for a national
referendum to approve the agreement, or should the decision be left in the
hands of the government and the Knesset?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. There is a need for a referendum 63.5 (62.0) [71.9]
2. There is no need for a referendum. The decision should be left in the
hands of the government and the Knesset 31.9 (33.9) [20.0]
3. Don?t know / No answer 4.7 (4.1) [8.1]
4. If a referendum is held, do you think that all Israeli citizens without
distinction, both Jews and Arabs, should have the right to vote in the
referendum? Or should this right be limited to Jewish citizens only?
General Public (Jews [Arabs]
1. All citizens, Jews and Arabs, should have the right to vote in the
referendum 52.1 (45.8) [87.8]
2. Only Jewish citizens should have the right to vote in the referendum
41.9 (48.6) [3.9]
3. Don?t know / No answer 6.0 (5.6) [8.3]
5. If a referendum were to be held today among all Israeli citizens, Jews
and Arabs, in your assessment would there or would there not be majority
support of a peace agreement with the Palestinians that would include an
Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and an evacuation of settlements?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. There would be majority support of the agreement 33.7 (29.4)
[58.2]
2. There would not be majority support of the agreement 54.3 (58.0)
[33.0]
3. Don?t know / No answer 12.0 (12.5) [8.8]
6. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry recently achieved a breakthrough and
convinced the Israelis and the Palestinians to begin a negotiation process
in Washington under US sponsorship. What, in your opinion, are the chances
that the renewed negotiations will lead to a peace agreement between the two
sides?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Very high chances 4.7 (2.7) [16.3]
2. Moderately high chances 17.6 (15.4) [30.3]
3. Moderately low chances 37.2 (39.4) [24.3]
4. Very low chances 36.2 (39.7) [16.3]
5. Don?t know / No answer 4.3 (2.8) [12.8]
7. Does the Palestinian Authority truly want to resume peace negotiations
or not truly want to resume peace negotiations?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. I?m sure it wants to 13.7 (6.2) [56.0]
2. I think it wants to 23.9 (23.0) [29.2]
3. I think it doesn?t want to 24.1 (27.6) [4.1]
4. I?m sure it doesn?t want to 31.8 (36.4) [5.8]
5. Don?t know / No answer 6.4 (6.7) [4.9]
8. Does the Israeli government truly want to resume peace negotiations or
not truly want to resume peace negotiations?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. I?m sure it wants to 25.0 (22.9) [36.8]
2. I think it wants to 37.5 (40.3) [21.5]
3. I think it doesn?t want to 20.1 (20.3) [19.2]
4. I?m sure it doesn?t want to 11.6 (11.2) [14.2]
5. Don?t know / No answer 5.8 (5.3) [8.3]
9. To what extent do you trust or not trust Prime Minister Netanyahu to
conduct the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in such a way that
Israel?s security will be ensured?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Strongly trust 19.3 (21.6) [6.0]
2. Moderately trust 36.2 (38.5) [23.2]
3. Don?t trust so much 22.8 (20.5) [36.1]
4. Don?t trust at all 18.4 (16.8) [27.4]
5. Don?t know / No answer 3.3 (2.6) [7.2]
10. To what extent do you trust or not trust Prime Minister Netanyahu to
conduct the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority in such a way that,
to the extent that it depends on Israel, a peace treaty will be signed?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Strongly trust 13.9 (15.6) [4.0]
2. Moderately trust 31.6 (32.2) [27.8]
3. Don?t trust so much 27.4 (26.7) [31.3]
4. Don?t trust at all 21.8 (20.7) [28.1]
5. Don?t know / No answer 5.4 (4.8) [8.8]
11. If Israel and the Palestinians reach an understanding and a permanent
peace agreement that includes security arrangements for Israel, a
demilitarized Palestinian state, international guarantees, and declaration
of the end of the conflict by the Palestinians, in return for this peace
agreement, would you support or not support each of the following?
11.1 Withdrawal to the 1967 borders with territorial swaps
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Would support 38.4 (32.4) [72.1]
2. Would not support 55.5 (62.5) [15.4]
3. Don?t know / No answer 6.2 (5.1) [12.5]
11.2 Transfer of the Arab neighborhoods of Jerusalem to the Palestinian
Authority, and a special arrangement for the holy places
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Would support 43.9 (42.1) [54.6]
2. Would not support 47.6 (50.3) [32.2]
3. Don?t know / No answer 8.5 (7.6) [13.2]
11.3 An evacuation of settlements, except for Ariel, Maaleh Adumim, and the
settlement blocs
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Would support 44.3 (40.0) [68.7]
2. Would not support 51.8 (57.6) [19.2]
3. Don?t know / No answer 3.9 (2.4) [12.1]
11.4 Israeli recognition in principle of the right of return, permitting the
return of a small number of Palestinian refugees and financial compensation
for others
General Public (Jews)
[Arabs]
1. Would support 28.4 (18.8) [82.8]
2. Would not support 66.7 (76.7) [9.6]
3. Don?t know / No answer 4.9 (4.5) [7.6]
12. If Israeli-Palestinian peace talks indeed begin, in your opinion should
or should not the Labor Party join the Netanyahu government immediately to
support the process from within?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. I?m sure it should 25.9 (20.6) [56.2]
2. I think it should 25.4 (27.3) [14.9]
3. I think it should not 17.9 (19.7) [7.9]
4. I?m sure it should not 13.8 (16.1) [1.0]
5. Don?t know / No answer 16.9 (16.3) [20.0]
13. If Israeli-Palestinian peace talks indeed begin, in your opinion should
or should not the Habayit Hayehudi party headed by Naftali Bennett leave the
government immediately so as not to participate in a process that, if
successful, will undoubtedly entail the evacuation of settlements?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. I?m sure it should 20.1 (19.7) [22.1]
2. I think it should 14.0 (13.2) [18.9]
3. I think it should not 23.2 (23.5) [21.6]
4. I?m sure it should not 24.4 (27.3) [8.3]
5. Don?t know / No answer 18.2 (16.3) [29.1]
14. When you think about the recent elections for the Chief Rabbinate, how
would you characterize them on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 being ?very clean?
and 5 being ?very corrupt??
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. Very clean 6.2 (6.8) [2.7]
2. 5.1 (5.0) [5.6]
3. Medium 24.2 (23.2) [29.9]
4. 14.9 (14.0) [20.1]
5. Very corrupt 25.9 (27.6) [16.6]
6. Don?t know / No answer 23.7 (23.5) [25.2]
15. What effect will the results of the Chief Rabbinate elections have on
the status of the Chief Rabbinate in eyes of the Jewish population as a
whole?
General Public (Jews) [Arabs]
1. It will not have an effect 29.2 (31.3) [17.2]
2. The Chief Rabbinate?s status will increase 19.3 (19.1) [20.6]
3. The Chief Rabbinate?s status will decrease 25.4 (26.9) [16.8]
4. Don?t know / No answer 26.1 (22.7) [45.4]
The Peace Index: July 2 2013
Date Published: 06/08/2013
Survey dates: 28/07/2013 - 30/07/2013
The July Index
http://www.peaceindex.org/indexMonthEng.aspx?num=254
Assessing the chances of the peace talks ? U.S. Secretary of State John
Kerry?s success in achieving a breakthrough and convincing Israeli and
Palestinian decision-makers to resume peace talks has not convinced the
majority of the Israeli Jewish public that the renewed negotiations will
lead to a peace agreement. Only about one-fifth (18%) rate the chances of
the talks producing a peace agreement as high or very high, while the
majority (80%) sees the chances as moderately low or very low. The Arab
public is much more optimistic, though here too doubts are considerable: 47%
assess the chances of getting to a peace agreement as high or very high
compared to 41% who view them as low or very low. A segmentation of the
responses of the Jewish public by voting in the recent Knesset elections
shows that only among Meretz voters is there a majority (65%) that sees high
or very high chances that the talks will bear fruit.
The sincerity of the sides ? The Jewish public?s high level of pessimism
about the negotiations? chances of success is undoubtedly connected to its
widespread opinion (64%) that the Palestinian leadership does not genuinely
want to resume these talks. Regarding the Israeli government, the response
of the Jewish public is in the opposite direction: 63% say the Israeli
government really does want to resume the talks. On this question, too, the
Arab public is more optimistic about both leaderships: a large majority
(85%) of the Arab public is sure or thinks that the Palestinian leadership
sincerely wants to resume peace talks; a smaller majority (58%) thinks or is
sure this is true of the Israeli government as well. A segmentation by
voting shows that the highest rate of those believing that the Israeli
government is sincere is found among Yesh Atid voters (73%). Regarding the
sincerity of the Palestinian side, only among Meretz voters does a majority
believe that the Palestinian Authority is sincere (76.5%).
Netanyahu?s conduct of the negotiations ? It appears that the Jewish public
makes a distinction between the position of the Israeli government and the
motives of the prime minister. A majority (60%) indeed trusts Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu to conduct the negotiations such that Israel?s security
will be safeguarded. But when asked whether Netanyahu will conduct the
negotiations such that ?to the extent that it depends on Israel, a peace
treaty will be signed,? the Jewish public splits into two equal camps: 48%
trust him on this score and 47% do not. The Arab public does not trust
Netanyahu in either regard: 63.5% do not trust him to conduct the
negotiations such that Israel?s security will be ensured, and 59% do not
trust him to conduct the negotiation such that, to the extent that it
depends on Israel, the talks will lead to peace.
Readiness for concessions ? The findings of this survey indicate that the
positions of the Jewish public on the terms of a peace agreement do not bode
well for the chances of the negotiations? success. Even given the terms that
we presented??Israel and the Palestinians will reach an understanding and a
permanent peace agreement that includes security arrangements for Israel, a
demilitarized Palestinian state, international guarantees, and a Palestinian
declaration of the end of the conflict??the majority of Jewish respondents,
to different extents, is not prepared to concede to the Palestinians on any
of the four problems that stand at the heart of the conflict. Some 77%
oppose Israeli recognition in principle of the right of return, with a small
number of Palestinian refugees being allowed to return and financial
compensation for others; 62.5% oppose a withdrawal to the 1967 borders with
land swaps; 58% oppose evacuating settlements except for Ariel, Maaleh
Adumim, and the settlement blocs; and 50% oppose transferring the Arab
neighborhoods of Jerusalem to the Palestinian Authority with a special
arrangement for the holy places. Among these four no?s, the greatest
opposition is on the issue of the right of return and the least is on the
Jerusalem issue. In the Arab public there is (variable) majority support for
concessions on all four of the issues, with the largest majority supporting
Israeli recognition in principle of the right of return while offering the
possibility of a limited number of refugees to return to Israel (82%), and
the smallest majority (55%) supporting the transfer of Arab neighborhoods of
Jerusalem to the Palestinian Authority with a special arrangement for the
holy places. The latter finding may be because some of the respondents are
Arab residents of East Jerusalem who do not want to be under PA sovereignty.
Support for a referendum ? In the past, we have always found majority
support for a referendum to ratify a peace agreement, should one be
attained. This time we also asked if a peace agreement is reached that
includes a withdrawal from Judea and Samaria and an evacuation of
settlements, is there a need to approve it in a referendum or should the
decision be left to the government and the Knesset? This time, as in the
past, a clear majority of the Jewish public (62%) affirmed that if peace is
reached a referendum should be held. In the Arab public, the rate of support
for a referendum is even higher at 72%.
Who should take part in the referendum? On the question of whether all
Israeli citizens without distinction, both Jews and Arabs, should have the
right to vote in the referendum, opinions among Jewish respondents are
divided between those who support granting the right to everyone (46%) and a
slightly higher rate who think that only Jewish citizens should be granted
the right to vote in the referendum (49%). Among the Arabs, a very large
majority (88%) think the right to vote in the referendum should be given to
all Israeli citizens. A segmentation of the answers of Jewish respondents by
voting in the latest Knesset elections reveals that only among Kadima,
Labor, and Meretz voters does a majority support giving the right to all
Israeli citizens without distinction (54.5%, 64%, and 83% respectively). A
segmentation of the responses by self-definition of religiosity in the
Jewish public turned up large disparities: only 13% of those who defined
themselves as Haredim favor participation of all citizens in the referendum,
33% of religious respondents, 31% of religious-traditional respondents, 46%
of nonreligious-traditional respondents, and 60% of secular respondents.
Likely results of the referendum ? The prevailing opinion in the Jewish
public (58%) is that if a referendum were to be held today among all Israeli
citizens, Jews and Arabs, there would not be majority support for a peace
agreement that includes an Israeli withdrawal from the territories and
evacuation of settlements. In the Arab public, however, exactly the same
rate thinks that if a referendum of all citizens were to be held, there
would be majority support for a peace agreement. A cross-tabulation of the
responses of the Jewish public regarding the anticipated referendum results
and their responses regarding who should participate in the referendum shows
that of those who think that a majority would support the agreement, the
majority (57%) support the participation of all Israeli citizens?including
Arabs?in the referendum. However, among those who think that a majority
would not support the agreement if all Israeli citizens took part in the
referendum, only 40% support Arab participation in the referendum.
Join or quit the government because of peace talks? ? A plurality (48%) of
the Jewish public (vs. 35%) thinks that the Labor Party should join the
Netanyahu government immediately so as to support the effort to reach a
peace agreement from within. Seventy-one percent of the Arab public thinks
the same. Among those voters who voted for Labor in the recent elections,
68% think Labor should join the government immediately for this purpose.
However, only a minority of the Jewish public (33%) thinks that the Habayit
Hayehudi party, headed by Naftali Bennett, should leave the government
immediately so as not to participate in a process that, if successful, will
undoubtedly entail evacuating settlements. Among Arab respondents, the
highest rate (41%) would want Habayit Hayehudi to leave the government;
their main motivation, however, is most likely not the motivation presented
in the question but rather a desire to weaken the right-wing nature of the
government. A segmentation of the responses of Habayit Hayehudi voters to
this question shows a problematic internal division: 46% are in favor of
leaving the government immediately while 49% are against it.
The elections for the Chief Rabbinate ? Things happen so fast in Israel that
thee elections for the Chief Rabbinate may already seem to be history.
Still, it is noteworthy that according to the results of the survey, only
12% of the Jewish public think the latest elections to the Chief Rabbinate
were ?clean,? 23% placed them midway between clean and corrupt, while the
majority (42%) characterized them as corrupt. (About 25%, an especially high
rate in our surveys, said that they did not know or declined to answer the
question.) As for how the elections for Chief Rabbi will influence the
status of the institution of the Chief Rabbinate, 31% think the elections
will not have an influence, 27% believe the status of the Chief Rabbinate
will be weakened by the elections, and 19% expect the status of the Chief
Rabbinate to be strengthened. (Again about one-fourth did not know or
declined to respond.)
The Negotiations Index for July, 2013
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's
attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian
Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one
focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the
degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to
peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated,
combined, and standardized on a scale of 0-100, in which 0 represents total
lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to
bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in
its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct
findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish
Israelis.
Negotiations Index: General sample: 46.4; Jewish sample: 42.3.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Peace Index is a project of the Evens Program in Mediation and Conflict
Resolution at Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute. The
survey was conducted by telephone on July 28-30, 2013, by the Midgam
Research Institute. The survey was conducted in Hebrew, Arabic, and Russian
and included 602 respondents, 502 from the Jewish sector and 100 from the
Arab sector. A calculation was done such that the total of the respondents
would constitute a representative national sample of the adult population
aged 18 and over. The margin of error is ? 4.5%.
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Chapter: _Subject Review